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Sepang weather


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#1 Ravenak

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:13

It's too soon to have the details, so for now it's only PROBABILITIES.

But I think it says it all, and already yesterday, journalists talked about huge chances of rain in Sepang.

Posted Image

We will have to wait to get data on showers.

Edited by Ravenak, 18 March 2013 - 11:13.


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#2 Peat

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:21

Surely due to the humidity, they can bubble up out of nowhere?

Let's all be honest here. We know how this will end. Hours and hours of watching cars stationary, under tarpaulins until it gets too dark to race.

It's a nonsense.

#3 Raelene

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:28

i wouldn't rely on the forecase - like Singapore - they say rain every day. We had a big downpour yesterday in Singapore - today they said rain - nothing. I would expect rain in Malaysia - everytime I've been anywhere there - it seems to rain about 3pm

Peat - last year it was delayhed for 1 hour - I was at the track - I had a sleep

#4 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:39

I remember last year the CAPE value (Convective Available Potential Energy) was highly relevant, and the CAPE value will have an impact on whether the rain will be, in effect, tipped over the edge to produce the downpours that we usually expect. If anyone is interested, last year Friday had 850 J/kg (not enough to tip it over the edge), Saturday had 1000 J/kg (a little light rain but not enough to tip it over the edge) and Sunday around 1500 J/kg (which was enough to tip it over the edge and give us the downpour).

Edited by HuddersfieldTerrier1986, 18 March 2013 - 11:40.


#5 MortenF1

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:45

My forecast has 31'C for all three days, and then just a meagre 2mm of rain Sunday afternoon.
...but there's no point really, in looking at the forecast this early.

#6 Vesuvius

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:55

Kimi said pretty nicely about weather of malaysia " it's hot and it rains everyday at some point"

#7 InfectedPumpkin

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 11:08

Please, let this be a dry weekend!

#8 OfficeLinebacker

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 11:42

Please, let this be a dry weekend!

Boo!

#9 sock22

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 17:12

That's Albert Park :p

#10 Ravenak

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 17:32

Holy crap :drunk:

#11 Ravenak

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 17:33

Here's the right one. I was wondering why it had changed so much :p

Posted Image

#12 SR388

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 17:35

Surely due to the humidity, they can bubble up out of nowhere?

Let's all be honest here. We know how this will end. Hours and hours of watching cars stationary, under tarpaulins until it gets too dark to race.

It's a nonsense.


I fear this may happen.

#13 Dzeidzei

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 17:47

But I think it says it all, and already yesterday, journalists talked about huge chances of rain in Sepang.


No rain. It´ll be ICECOLD.

#14 Ampersand

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 18:52

It will definitely be hot. It might well rain. To be honest, they've had the luck of the devil with rain over the years.

#15 Boxerevo

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 19:57

Surely due to the humidity, they can bubble up out of nowhere?

Let's all be honest here. We know how this will end. Hours and hours of watching cars stationary, under tarpaulins until it gets too dark to race.

It's a nonsense.

One thing is sure,i will not wake up or stay awake if rain comes.

Even clowns have they limit.

#16 mclarennut

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 20:03

It does rain most of the time in the afternoon this time of year, but it such a hot place it only takes an hour or so to dry, just like last year race.

I'm expecting delays but also expect a good race.

#17 Rosberg

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 20:06

Looking at the graphs, what time is the Malaysian Grand Prix?

If it does rain, the heat will dry up the track like it did last year.

#18 Ravenak

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 01:43

Looking at the graphs, what time is the Malaysian Grand Prix?

If it does rain, the heat will dry up the track like it did last year.


The race starts at 4pm local time = 16:00

#19 BigCHrome

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 02:32

Hoping for a dry and relatively hot weekend.

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#20 lbennie

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 02:47

Let's all be honest here. We know how this will end. Hours and hours of watching cars stationary, under tarpaulins until it gets too dark to race.

It's a nonsense.


QFT :up:




:|



#21 eronrules

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 07:35

Surely due to the humidity, they can bubble up out of nowhere?

Let's all be honest here. We know how this will end. Hours and hours of watching cars stationary, under tarpaulins until it gets too dark to race.

It's a nonsense.


cheer up mate, if that happens, we'll have kimi with icecream and coke, i'll give up a GP to see that :p

#22 jjcale

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 09:26

Lets take it one step at a time.

What's the weather likely to be on Friday for FP 1&2 ??

#23 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 09:28

The usual, mainly due to the time of day. Hot and dry with basically no chance of rain (other than maybe some towards the end of P2 at a guess, but would imagine it'll be hot and dry for both sessions).

#24 Ravenak

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:07

Friday looks like this:

Posted Image

Remember: the blue line only shows probabilities. Actual rain and showers predictions are shown as vertical bars (none at the moment).

#25 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:13

It's interesting though that since your previous graph update which showed no more than 40% probability at any stage of the weekend, it's now rarely below 40% probability at any stage of the weekend. Anyway, as we've seen in the past, a massive downpour can look like it's going to hit the track, but end up missing by as little as a mile or 2, so really it's more a case of "see if the showers/storms build and if they do, then keep an eye on the radar".

#26 Ravenak

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:26

In some cases and with convenient conditions, the weather can be predicted accurately 10+ days in advance.

In extreme changing conditions like in Malaysia, it is far more difficult. This is why this time, the graph I'm posting car vary quite a bit until the actual targeted time.

Edited by Ravenak, 20 March 2013 - 11:27.


#27 Jimisgod

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:35

So how many mms of rain equals a red flag now?

#28 Gintonious

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:43

The last few GPs there have been affected by rain at some point in the weekend, I don't expect that to change at all.

#29 DS27

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:46

So how many mms of rain equals a red flag now?


I thought it was the prospect of rain now rather than the rain itself that caused the problem...

#30 MortenF1

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:46

Depends if the given amount of rain falls hard during ten minutes or across an hour. I would guess that 10-15mm over 20-30 mins would cause serious problems.

#31 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 11:47

The last few GPs there have been affected by rain at some point in the weekend, I don't expect that to change at all.


Unsurprisingly it's only become a regular occurance since the time change (though quali and the race now start at 4pm rather than 5pm). 2009 race abandoned, 2010 qualifying red flagged, 2011........I can't remember, 2012 race red flagged.

#32 SpaMaster

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 15:58

So much excitement over wet weather. Yet in reality there is mostly no action on track when it rains. I don't understand this. I don't want rain, certainly not on Friday, because we may end up with curtailed race.

#33 Ravenak

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 16:16

So much excitement over wet weather. Yet in reality there is mostly no action on track when it rains. I don't understand this. I don't want rain, certainly not on Friday, because we may end up with curtailed race.


The right amount of rain gives us amazing races and qualifying sessions.

#34 Mc_Silver

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 16:44

So much excitement over wet weather. Yet in reality there is mostly no action on track when it rains. I don't understand this. I don't want rain, certainly not on Friday, because we may end up with curtailed race.


I hate rain on Fridays but in qualifying and race it adds more excitement to the show :)

#35 Myrvold

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 17:04

And steady rain throughout the whole weekend does cause the teams to set the cars up for wet (higher cars). Which means that they can actually run in the wet.

#36 JonathanProc

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 17:31

Even if it does rain it is very likely to dry up quicker when it stops. The heat plus the elevation changes and proper drainage should be an improvement over Melbourne.

#37 Jejking

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 17:59

Nice graphs, where did you get em from?

#38 ANF

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 18:53

Afternoon: thunderstorms
http://www.met.gov.m...m...&Itemid=905

#39 Antonov

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:02

how are we looking?

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#40 MortenF1

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:43

Rain now looks guaranteed for the race.

#41 Raelene

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 08:46

can't guarantee the weather in this part of the world. Bucketed down here in Singapore on Sunday - haven't seen rain since. Two weeks ago - every day at 3pm it would rain.

I'm assuming it will rain (hopefully not as much as last year), but there is nok guarantee.

#42 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 10:01

Well they had the usual downpour at round about the time the cars would've been heading out on track if what I read is right, and looking at some pics of the rain, it would've definitely been Safety Car conditions and more than likely a red flag situation. When will Bernie learn? Ok, there's a risk of storms with a 1pm start time (just look at 2001) but at least that gives them a chance to restart rather than finding themselves saying "the light isn't good enough, we can't restart" as is the risk with a 4pm start time (better than 5pm as it was for a year or 2). I'd be more than happy being up watching the race at about 5am rather than say 8am, so I'd say "screw the 'it's better for Europan fans' excuse as 8am might be, but not if they're greeted with an abandoned race.

Oh and just remember, even if the risk of rain is 100%, as proven by a practice session a couple of years ago I think it was, the rain can slide a mile or 2 to the south of the circuit and therefore completely miss the track.

Edited by HuddersfieldTerrier1986, 21 March 2013 - 10:08.


#43 HoldenRT

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 11:23

As long as the sessions aren't interupted it's ok.. but if there is red flags and delayed or cancelled races.. there is no excuses because they know the weather conditions in Sepang, because it is the same every year.

#44 Ferrari_F1_fan_2001

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 11:28

So how many mms of rain equals a red flag now?



Rain??? Where????


*starts waving red flag*

#45 FPV GTHO

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 11:29

Well they had the usual downpour at round about the time the cars would've been heading out on track if what I read is right, and looking at some pics of the rain, it would've definitely been Safety Car conditions and more than likely a red flag situation. When will Bernie learn? Ok, there's a risk of storms with a 1pm start time (just look at 2001) but at least that gives them a chance to restart rather than finding themselves saying "the light isn't good enough, we can't restart" as is the risk with a 4pm start time (better than 5pm as it was for a year or 2). I'd be more than happy being up watching the race at about 5am rather than say 8am, so I'd say "screw the 'it's better for Europan fans' excuse as 8am might be, but not if they're greeted with an abandoned race.

Oh and just remember, even if the risk of rain is 100%, as proven by a practice session a couple of years ago I think it was, the rain can slide a mile or 2 to the south of the circuit and therefore completely miss the track.


Would you prefer these 5am/6am starts that Sepang/Melbourne have or a 12am Sat night start?

#46 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 11:38

Would you prefer these 5am/6am starts that Sepang/Melbourne have or a 12am Sat night start?


Well neither have ever started at that sort of time. Melbourne used to be around 2/3am and Sepang used to be around 5/6am, both of which I'm happy with. Personally I'd have every race on the calendar starting at 2pm local time (ok that'd mean no twilight races and no Singapore night race, but I can live with that). I've always been a big fan of being up at silly o'clock watching F1, that'll never change.

#47 OoxLox

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 11:39

Would you prefer these 5am/6am starts that Sepang/Melbourne have or a 12am Sat night start?


Anything that helps avoid needless red flag situations is fine with me. I was up for a 6am race start in Melbourne and would be happy with the same for Sepang.

#48 HuddersfieldTerrier1986

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 11:43

Anything that helps avoid needless red flag situations is fine with me. I was up for a 6am race start in Melbourne and would be happy with the same for Sepang.


That of course is 1 of the issues. If you have a red flag due to a downpour at 1pm, no problem, still plenty of light left in the day to get back to racing. If you have 1 at 4/5pm as usual in Sepang you most definitely run the risk of running out of daylight (as also proven by qualifying in Melbourne, the light was probably more of an issue than the weather which was approaching (but may have missed).

#49 Kyo

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 22:44

I can remember some years when F1 fans would have danced naked around their houses even for a small drop of water during the quali or race.

We still would if they let them race.

Only Bernie thinks it is a good idea to race in the late afternoon knowing it has 90% chance of raining even though the race will be canceled if it rains.

#50 autogp

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 22:52

Rain??? Where????


*starts waving red flag*



Thats seriously not funny.

As it is far to close to the truth in F1 nowadays.