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Place The Points Competition 2013 final standings after Brazil


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 17:42

2013 final standings after Brazil:

Pos Name             Tot Latest
1)  scheivlak        1656  38
2)  AcuraF1          1620  45
3)  Apex             1608  31
4)  KWSN-DSM         1601  46
5)  mark f1          1593  34
6)  Makarias         1592  30
7)  Anderis          1591  62
8)  DutchQuicksilver 1589  37
9)  noikeee          1587  38
10) Fisichella_2001  1581  32
11) Kalmake          1574  41
12) Estwald          1572  33
13) an1res           1570  42
=   skylark68        1570  45
15) Wander           1566  30
16) Grayson          1553  30
17) wattoroos        1540  30
18) kismet           1539  61
19) Costaz           1536  59
20) Bleu             1534  45
21) Iscurrega        1531  44
22) Wlleiotl         1530  37
23) Fastcake         1510  41
24) August           1494  39
25) M2000-5          1488  46
26) Brawn BGP 001    1441  29
27) Barty            1432  42

Congratulations to scheivlak :clap: :clap: :clap: who grabs the 2013 PTPC championship with a comfortable margin.
Congrats also to runner-up AcuraF1 :clap: :clap:
and third place finisher Apex :clap: completing the podium.

The entries


The Drivers' list

Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Rosb    160,1    111,8   27
Vett    157,6    141,3   27
Ricc    144,4     74,1   22
diRe    137,9     78,7   22
Hami    136,9     92,6   26
Gros    115,2     79,5   20
Webb    115,2     81,9   23
Alon    101,5     85,8   15
Räik    100,3     66,3   17
Verg     98,0     44,8   14
Hülk     85,5     60,0    8
Mass     83,1     53,1    6
Suti     78,5     45,3    8
Butt     40,0     29,3    0
Pere     40,0     24,3    0
Guti     21,6     13,6    0
Bott     10,7      6,3    0
Mald      2,0      1,1    0

Fernando Alonso makes it past his personal 100% expectation mark as the ninth and final driver of 2013, whereas Jean-Eric Vergne just misses out on it after finishing the season with a twelve race pointless streak.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2013 this is 27.


Guesses on P1-P5:

Vettel                 Webber                 Alonso                 Button                 Rosberg             
* Potential     397    Barty           242    skylark68       281    Costaz          248    * Potential     171
* Forecast      397    Anderis         225    Bleu            275    Fastcake        241    * Forecast      171
* Current       397    Costaz          200    August          262    Brawn BGP 001   222    * Current       171
Anderis         280    kismet          200    KWSN-DSM        260    Barty           209    scheivlak       152
Makarias        276    * Potential     199    Iscurrega       254    wattoroos       208    an1res          140
kismet          274    * Forecast      199    M2000-5         251    Iscurrega       201    AcuraF1         139
Bleu            272    * Current       199    an1res          250    Wlleiotl        200    KWSN-DSM        138
noikeee         272    Fastcake        198    Costaz          250    kismet          199    Kalmake         130
Apex            270    DutchQuicksilver181    kismet          250    August          197    Grayson         125
August          267    an1res          180    Kalmake         249    AcuraF1         195    DutchQuicksilver124
wattoroos       263    Apex            180    AcuraF1         245    Bleu            190    Makarias        118
Iscurrega       260    Estwald         180    Anderis         245    DutchQuicksilver190    Fastcake        117
scheivlak       260    mark f1         180    * Potential     242    Wander          185    Estwald         115
KWSN-DSM        259    Wlleiotl        180    * Forecast      242    Fisichella_2001 182    Fisichella_2001 112
Costaz          254    Fisichella_2001 175    * Current       242    Apex            180    Brawn BGP 001   111
Fisichella_2001 252    Bleu            173    Wlleiotl        240    Grayson         175    noikeee         105
Wander          251    Kalmake         173    DutchQuicksilver236    mark f1         170    Wander          105
mark f1         250    skylark68       169    noikeee         236    skylark68       170    skylark68       104
skylark68       250    AcuraF1         168    scheivlak       235    Makarias        164    Anderis         100
Wlleiotl        250    Wander          162    Estwald         230    scheivlak       164    Apex            100
DutchQuicksilver247    KWSN-DSM        160    mark f1         230    KWSN-DSM        157    mark f1         100
Fastcake        247    Iscurrega       158    Fisichella_2001 229    M2000-5         157    Wlleiotl        100
Barty           241    Makarias        158    Fastcake        227    noikeee         151    Iscurrega        94
Kalmake         239    wattoroos       158    Makarias        227    an1res          150    August           88
M2000-5         236    Grayson         155    wattoroos       223    Estwald         145    wattoroos        88
Estwald         235    noikeee         153    Wander          222    Kalmake         145    Bleu             79
AcuraF1         230    M2000-5         152    Apex            220    Anderis         127    M2000-5          78
Grayson         230    scheivlak       145    Grayson         210    * Potential      73    Barty            77
an1res          225    Brawn BGP 001   144    Brawn BGP 001   207    * Forecast       73    Costaz           77
Brawn BGP 001   211    August          116    Barty           192    * Current        73    kismet           67

Looking at the guesses for Vettel and Alonso one is inclined to believe we were a bit too optimistic about a close title fight this year... At least our Alonso guessing range was right in the ballpark, which can't be said for the other of these five drivers.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Perez                  Massa                  Hülkenberg             Hamilton               Ricciardo           
Brawn BGP 001   201    an1res          210    Bleu             84    scheivlak       203    M2000-5          26
August          170    M2000-5         199    Wlleiotl         80    * Potential     189    mark f1          25
Fastcake        161    Kalmake         192    wattoroos        78    * Forecast      189    Apex             24
Kalmake         154    kismet          175    Estwald          70    * Current       189    KWSN-DSM         24
Costaz          141    Anderis         170    KWSN-DSM         69    August          181    * Potential      20
Fisichella_2001 141    Estwald         155    Makarias         69    Grayson         165    * Forecast       20
Grayson         140    noikeee         150    Wander           67    Apex            160    an1res           20
wattoroos       133    skylark68       144    Brawn BGP 001    66    KWSN-DSM        159    * Current        20
Iscurrega       132    Bleu            140    AcuraF1          65    Makarias        158    Fisichella_2001  19
Makarias        129    Makarias        139    Apex             65    Fastcake        157    Kalmake          17
DutchQuicksilver128    DutchQuicksilver135    Grayson          65    DutchQuicksilver156    Brawn BGP 001    16
KWSN-DSM        125    Wander          134    skylark68        63    noikeee         152    August           15
Wander          122    wattoroos       133    scheivlak        62    mark f1         150    Grayson          15
Barty           121    Costaz          132    August           60    AcuraF1         145    kismet           15
Wlleiotl        120    Fisichella_2001 130    mark f1          60    Fisichella_2001 138    AcuraF1          14
skylark68       116    Iscurrega       130    M2000-5          57    wattoroos       138    Bleu             14
Anderis         114    mark f1         130    Fisichella_2001  56    Wander          136    noikeee          14
Apex            110    AcuraF1         121    Barty            55    Brawn BGP 001   133    Barty            12
mark f1         104    Apex            120    Fastcake         54    Bleu            129    scheivlak        12
Bleu            103    Grayson         120    * Potential      51    Iscurrega       128    DutchQuicksilver 11
kismet          101    KWSN-DSM        115    * Forecast       51    Estwald         124    Fastcake         11
Estwald         100    * Potential     112    * Current        51    Costaz          122    Anderis          10
noikeee          98    * Forecast      112    Anderis          50    skylark68       120    skylark68        10
an1res           90    * Current       112    Iscurrega        50    Wlleiotl        120    Wlleiotl         10
scheivlak        88    Brawn BGP 001   111    noikeee          50    kismet          118    Iscurrega         9
AcuraF1          84    scheivlak       110    DutchQuicksilver 49    Kalmake         115    Makarias          9
M2000-5          82    Wlleiotl        100    kismet           49    an1res          110    Wander            9
* Potential      49    August           91    Kalmake          45    Anderis         105    wattoroos         8
* Forecast       49    Fastcake         91    Costaz           43    Barty           105    Costaz            5
* Current        49    Barty            60    an1res           30    M2000-5         101    Estwald           0

While it's generally hopeless to get everything just about right you need to get *something* right; scheivlak's justifiably optimistic guesses on the Mercedes pairing were a key element to get the 2013 title.

The PTPC forecast after USA

Name             Forecast  +/-
scheivlak        1658,9   22,4
AcuraF1          1604,7    2,8
Apex             1595,2    0,9
noikeee          1590,3    5,3
KWSN-DSM         1584,2    3,3
Makarias         1584,1   16,6
mark f1          1580,2    0,9
Anderis          1578,8   19,2
DutchQuicksilver 1577,5    2,0
Estwald          1569,7   14,8
Fisichella_2001  1568,1    2,1
an1res           1562,8    6,9
Wander           1562,6    0,1
Kalmake          1559,8    3,8
skylark68        1554,7   -0,8
Grayson          1540,1    2,1
wattoroos        1529,1    0,6
Iscurrega        1524,6   -9,6
Costaz           1522,0  -10,1
Wlleiotl         1518,8    6,1
Bleu             1518,7   -0,8
kismet           1516,4    4,9
Fastcake         1489,6   15,0
M2000-5          1481,3  -11,5
August           1478,1    6,6
Brawn BGP 001    1430,2    9,2
Barty            1424,1   -0,1

Things always get a bit warped all the way to the end, for example noikeee's position getting a bit worse than predicted when Grosjean's engine blew. The final scores almost universally improved on this forecast due to the decent results for the McLarens in Brazil.

The best guesses on each driver

 X    #   !  Y
Vett 397 280 Anderis
Alon 242 240 Wlleiotl
Webb 199 200 Costaz, kismet; 198 Fastcake
Hami 189 181 August
Räik 183 183 Bleu, Kalmake
Rosb 171 152 scheivlak
Gros 132 131 AcuraF1
Mass 112 111 Brawn BGP 001
Butt  73 127 Anderis
Hülk  51  50 Anderis, Iscurrega, noikeee
Pere  49  82 M2000-5
diRe  48  50 Estwald
Suti  29  30 an1res
Ricc  20  20 an1res
Verg  13  14 DutchQuicksilver
Guti   6  18 wattoroos
Bott   4   7 Costaz
Mald   1  30 Kalmake
Bian   0   0 23 players
Pic    0   0 22 players
Kova   0   0 All 27 players
vdGa   0   0 25 players
Chil   0   0 24 players

Reality check on some of our predictions

Popularity Poll WCC prediction:


Team   Pred  Off
RBR    425  +171
Ferr   373  - 19
McLa   304  -182
Lotu   297  + 18
Merc   245  +115
Will    88  - 83
Saub    88  - 31
FoIn    72  +  5
STR     27  +  6
Cate     0  +- 0  
Maru     0  +- 0

Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?

Owner               Owned Comment  
     <-     =    ->       
Alon  27    0    0  Mass  Correct
Räik  27    0    0  Gros  Correct
Hülk  26    1    0  Guti  Correct
Butt  26    0    1  Pere  Correct
Vett  26    0    1  Webb  Correct
Hami  25    0    2  Rosb  Correct
Mald  20    4    3  Bott  Wrong
Suti  15    5    7  diRe  Wrong
Ricc  12    6    9  Verg  Correct
Pic    4   23    0  vdGa  Correct
Bian   3   23    1  Chil  Correct

Our teammate battle predictions turned out pretty good this year, and with the scarcity of points for Williams the outcome of that one became a bit of a lottery as well.

Welcome back to PTPC 2014! Have a happy new year and lots of fun until the mayhem begins again!

 



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#2 Anderis

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 17:50

Lol, I went up 10 places in standings in the very last race!

 

Thank you Makarias for running this game. :up:



#3 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 18:12

Congratulations to scheivlak as the Grand Champion of Placing the Points in 2013. I had a good last weekend, but if's and's or but's is neither here nor there. I'll be back next season trying to wrest the championship again. And naturally a big thank you to Makarias for running the game.

 

:cool:



#4 scheivlak

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 18:48

Woohoo  :D

 

Special thanks to Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg and Mercedes for justifying my faith, and to Romain Grosjean for scoring like he did in the second part of the championship. I have to say that I was very surprised by the low predictions for the Mercedes pair in this game.

 

The nice thing about this game is that you can't mess it up anymore once the season has started  - like I always do in the shareholders game  :lol:

 

A million thanks to Makarias for running the game and giving us all those funny statistics  :up:



#5 Costaz

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 13:41

Congratulations, scheivlak, :clap: :clap: :clap: very good foresight, in a year when it was impossible to get it right! I had some decent guesses, but was way off in the case of Mercedes, and waaaaaaaaaaaaay off in my guess for McLaren... I have to study winter testing better next year. I'll be back!

 

Yet more thanks to Makarias for running another great game! :wave: