10584 replies to this topic

[lustigson]

List updated periodically finalized.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport
Mercedes F1 W10 EQ Power+ – Mercedes M10 EQ Power+
44. Lewis Hamilton (signed for 2019-20)
77. Valtteri Bottas (contract for 2019, option for ‘20)

Scuderia Ferrari (Mission Winnow title sponsorship called off?)
Ferrari SF90 – Ferrari 064
5. Sebastian Vettel (signed for 2018-20)
16. Charles Leclerc (confirmed for 2019, probably on long-term deal)

Aston Martin Red Bull Racing
Red Bull Racing RB15 – Honda RA619H (2-year Honda deal)
33. Max Verstappen (contract until '20)
10. Pierre Gasly (long-term contract? Brings valuable Honda experience)

Renault F1 Team
Renault R.S.19 – Renault E-Tech 19
3. Daniel Ricciardo (deal for 2019-20)
27. Nico Hülkenberg (contracted)

Rich Energy Haas F1 Team
Haas VF-19 – Ferrari 064
8. Romain Grosjean (confirmed)
20. Kevin Magnussen (confirmed; stated he has a 2-year contract)

McLaren F1 Team
McLaren MCL34 – Renault E-Tech 19 (second of 3-year deal)
55. Carlos Sainz, jr. (on multi-year deal)
4. Lando Norris (McLaren junior driver)

SportPesa Racing Point F1 Team (team and chassis set to stay)
Racing Point RP19 – BWT Mercedes (engines badged by sponsor)
11. Sergio Pérez (confirmed for 2019)
18. Lance Stroll (confirmed)

Alfa Romeo Racing
Alfa Romeo C38 – Ferrari 064 ("multi-year agreement" with Ferrari)
7. Kimi Räikkönen (deal for 2019 and 20)
99. Antonio Giovinazzi (confirmed)

Red Bull Toro Rosso Honda
Toro Rosso STR14 – Honda RA619H
26. Daniil Kvyat (confirmed; three times lucky?)
23. Alexander Albon (confirmed)

ROKiT Williams Racing
Williams FW42 – Mercedes M10 EQ Power+
63. George Russell (on multi-year agreement; Mercedes junior driver)
88. Robert Kubica (confirmed)

Bold+red = team
Bold+grey = car/engine brand, type designation
Bold+blue engine = rumored engine deal
Bold driver = confirmed driver
Bold+blue driver = driver contracted in 2018
Regular+blue driver = rumored driver

Edited by lustigson, 06 March 2019 - 21:40.

[sopa]

If Hamilton decides to call it a day after 2018, Mercedes could be in a bit of trouble as both Vettel and Verstappen are signed up beyond 2018.

 

Ricciardo as the lead driver then? 

[SenorSjon]

First guess

 

Red Bull Honda/badged Mercedes/badged Renault

Verstappen

Ricciardo?

Sainz?

 

Mercedes

Hamilton

Ocon

 

Ferrari

Vettel

LeClerc?

Ricciardo?

 

Force India Mercedes

Perez

no clue 

 

Renault

Hulkenberg

Sainz? 

Norris?

 

McLaren Renault

Vandoorne

Alonso?

 

Williams Mercedes

$troll

Kubica

 

Haas Ferrari

Giovinazzi

LeClerc

 

Toro Rosso Honda

Hartley

Gasly

 

Longbow Ferrari

Ferrari Student

Erikson.

Edited by SenorSjon, 02 November 2017 - 09:19.

[sladealonso]

Early predictions

 

Red Bull Honda

1.Max Verstappen

55.Carlos Sainz

 

Mercedes

44.Lewis Hamilton

3.Daniel Ricciardo

 

Ferrari

5.Sebastian Vettel

7.Kimi Raikkonen

 

McLaren Renault

14.Fernando Alonso

2.Stoffel Vandoorne

 

Renault

27.Nico Hulkenberg

77.Valtteri Bottas

 

Force India Mercedes

31.Esteban Ocon

11.Sergio Perez

 

Williams Mercedes

18.Lance Stroll

X.Robert Kubica

 

Haas Ferrari

X.Charles Leclerc

20.Kevin Magnussen

 

Sauber Ferrari

X.Lando Norris

9.Marcus Ericsson

 

Toro Rosso Honda

10.Pierre Gasly

X.Nirei Fukuzumi

[TheRacingElf]

If Hamilton decides to call it a day after 2018, Mercedes could be in a bit of trouble as both Vettel and Verstappen are signed up beyond 2018.

 

Ricciardo as the lead driver then? 

Just because Rosberg suddenly called it quits doesn't mean Hamilton, or any other driver for that matter, will do the same.

 

Lewis has already said that he wants to stay at Mercedes as long as Vettel is at Ferrari, that he doesn't want to retire yet because there is no way back from that and his life after racing will be long anyway so he doesn't want to make it any longer by retiring early.

 

I guess Lewis will extend his contract by 3 more years and will decide to do next after that.

[sopa]

Just because Rosberg suddenly called it quits doesn't mean Hamilton, or any other driver for that matter, will do the same.

 

 

The difference is that Rosberg had a valid contract till the end of 2018, so he opted to break his contract. But Hamilton's contract officially ends in 2018.

 

Though I do think him continuing is more likely than not.

[SenorSjon]

Just because Rosberg suddenly called it quits doesn't mean Hamilton, or any other driver for that matter, will do the same.

 

Lewis has already said that he wants to stay at Mercedes as long as Vettel is at Ferrari, that he doesn't want to retire yet because there is no way back from that and his life after racing will be long anyway so he doesn't want to make it any longer by retiring early.

 

I guess Lewis will extend his contract by 3 more years and will decide to do next after that.

 

Pllus he stated he would like to take on the new generation.

[markelov74]

It all depends on what Ricciardo does. Either he stays with Red Bull or moves to Ferrari, as I believe Ocon is nailed down at Mercedes.

If he stays with Red Bull, I assume Leclerc will get Raikkonen's seat and Sainz stays at Renault.

If he moves to Ferrari, Sainz will move to Red Bull, and there's a chance Norris joins McLaren and Vandoorne is moved over to Renault

In the end I predict he will stay at Red Bull and become the number 2 there

Red Bull - Verstappen and Ricciardo
Mercedes- Hamilton and Ocon
Ferrari - Vettel and Leclerc
McLaren - Alonso and Vandoorne
Renault - Sainz and Hulkenberg
Force India - Perez and Kvyat/Russell (depends on how Russell performs in F2. If he isn't in the top three I'd say Kvyat who will be test driver for 18' will get th seat)
Williams - Bottas and Stroll (Kubica or Massa will only stay for one year)
Haas - Magnussen and Giovinazzi
Sauber - Kubica and Ericsson
Toro Rosso - Hartley and Gasly

Edited by markelov74, 02 November 2017 - 10:34.

[sopa]

First let's see, how Leclerc does in Sauber before we give him the Ferrari seat. And even then Ferrari traditionally doesn't hire drivers, who only have a single season under their belt.

[RECKLESS]

Also first let's see how Bottas' next year goes before he is out of Mercedes.

Harmony between him/Lewis is such that it is already a big asset to the team.

[SilverArrow31]

It wont happen but I really really want it to..... Hamilton to Ferrari at the end of 2018! to beat Vettel in the same car like he did with Alonso, to become the undisputed best of his generation (Max isnt part of his) and to win the title with three teams. Hamilton can do 6 years each with both Mclaren, Mercedes and Ferrari. 

 

... Dont shoot me down I know it is very unlikely for Hamilton to want it or for Vettel to allow it  

Edited by SilverArrow31, 02 November 2017 - 11:22.

[Nonesuch]

Quite remarkable that at the front of the grid only Vettel and Verstappen have a contract. That could quickly change, however.

 

Hopefully Ricciardo moves to Ferrari. Or, if the youngsters really impress in 2018, one of those.

 

It's high time for something new. Ten years of the Hamilton-Vettel show is long enough.

[Trust]

If Max outperforms Daniel massively next year without bad luck, I don't think Ferrari will hire him. He has more chance at Mercedes. And if LecLerc shows good then I can see Kimi maybe staying one more year and Leclerc taking his place for 2020 season.

[Laster]

Mercedes
Hamilton
Ricciardo

Ferrari
Vettel
Bottas (A better version of their current driver)

Red Bull
Verstappen
Sainz (Regardless of whether he beats Hulk or not)

Force India
Ocon
LeClerc (I would love to see this lineup)

Renault
Hulkenberg
Perez (Concedes he won’t get in at Ferrari, takes best possible alternative)

McLaren
Vandoorne
Norris (Alonso retires when Mclaren comes nowhere close to challenging for a championship)

Williams
Stroll
Kubica (I hope)

Haas
Giovinaazi (Grosjean loses his seat)
Magnussen

Toro Rosso Honda
Hartley
Gasly

Sauber Ferrari
(Brings in rookies - no idea who)

I’m guessing I only get about 25% of this right.

Edited by Laster, 02 November 2017 - 12:05.

[EauBleu]

Early predictions

 

Red Bull Honda

1.Max Verstappen

55.Carlos Sainz

 

Mercedes

44.Lewis Hamilton

3.Daniel Ricciardo

 

Ferrari

5.Sebastian Vettel

7.Kimi Raikkonen

 

McLaren Renault

14.Fernando Alonso

2.Stoffel Vandoorne

 

Renault

27.Nico Hulkenberg

77.Valtteri Bottas

 

Force India Mercedes

31.Esteban Ocon

11.Sergio Perez

 

Williams Mercedes

18.Lance Stroll

X.Robert Kubica

 

Haas Ferrari

X.Charles Leclerc

20.Kevin Magnussen

 

Sauber Ferrari

X.Lando Norris

9.Marcus Ericsson

 

Toro Rosso Honda

10.Pierre Gasly

X.Nirei Fukuzumi

Haha, you expect Max to be WDC in 2018 and take no. 1!

[TRF]

If Hamilton decides to call it a day after 2018, Mercedes could be in a bit of trouble as both Vettel and Verstappen are signed up beyond 2018.

Ricciardo as the lead driver then?

Highly unlikely BUT even if that did happen I think they would be just fine with RIC as their lead driver, he reasonably quick, good race pace, decent race craft, and very consistent, he would easily challenge MAX and VET in my opinion ofcourse..

Edited by TRF, 02 November 2017 - 12:17.

[V8 Fireworks]

The difference is that Rosberg had a valid contract till the end of 2018, so he opted to break his contract. But Hamilton's contract officially ends in 2018.

 

Though I do think him continuing is more likely than not.

 

Surely Ferrari should target Hamilton, in order to assemble a 8 (9x) total WDCs dream team! 

[V8 Fireworks]

as I believe Ocon is nailed down at Mercedes.
 

 

Really?

 

Merc could have taken Ocon already for '18 if they were so keen, yet they retained Bottas. 

Edited by V8 Fireworks, 02 November 2017 - 12:21.

[TRF]

First guess

Red Bull Honda/badged Mercedes/badged Renault
Verstappen
Ricciardo?
Sainz?

Mercedes
Hamilton
Ocon

Ferrari
Vettel
LeClerc?
Ricciardo?

Force India Mercedes
Perez
no clue

Renault
Hulkenberg
Sainz?
Norris?

McLaren Renault
Vandoorne
Alonso?

Williams Mercedes
$troll
Kubica

Haas Ferrari
Giovinazzi
LeClerc

Toro Rosso Honda
Hartley
Gasly

Longbow Ferrari
Ferrari Student
Erikson.

Where's Bottas gone??
If Merc dropped him I think he would easily find a top midfield seat or at least be back at Williams and that's only if Ferrari didn't take him to replace Raikkonen

Edited by TRF, 02 November 2017 - 12:32.

[HistoryFan]

I think there's big stability at the driver's market since years as the top drivers are on a long-term contract: Vettel and Verstappen to 2020, Hamilton will also be confirmed for more years at Mercedes.

 

Ocon to replace Bottas ist likely.

 

Bottas, Leclerc or Giovinazzi to replace Ferrari also.

 

I doubt Vettel-Ricciardo at Ferrari will happen...

[HistoryFan]

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton - Esteban Ocon

Ferrari: Seastian Vettel - Charles Leclerc

Red Bull Renault: Max Verstappen - Daniel Ricciardo

Force Mercedes: Sergio Pérez - Valtteri Bottas

Williams Mercedes: Lance Stroll - Stoffel Vandoorne

Toro Rosso Honda: Pierre Gasly - Brendon Hartley

Renault: Nico Hülkenberg - Carlos Sainz
Haas Ferrari: Romain Grosjean - Antonio Giovinazzi

McLaren Renauilt: Fernando Alonso - Lando Norris

Sauber Ferrari: Marcus Ericsson - George Russell

[HistoryFan]

 

McLaren Renault

Vandoorne

Alonso?

 

 

I think Alonso is on a 2-year-contract.
 

[HistoryFan]

 

Toro Rosso Honda

10.Pierre Gasly

X.Nirei Fukuzumi

 

Don't think Fukuzumi will have enough points for a superlicence.
 

[V8 Fireworks]

Hmm, my guess:

 

Ferrari: Hamilton (driver's champ), Vettel

Mercedes: Ricciardo, Ocon

Red Bull-Honda: Verstappen, Gasly

Renault: Sainz, Vandoorne (poached by Renault)

McLaren-Renault: Alonso, Norris (rookie)

Force India-Mercedes: Perez, Wehrlein

Williams-Mercedes: Stroll, Bottas (returns to Williams)

Toro Rosso-Honda: Hartley, TBA (Rossi?)

HAAS-Ferrari: Magnussen, Hulkenberg

Sauber-Ferrari: Leclerc, Ericsson

 

Retired: Raikkonen, Grosjean

 

Rumours placed Hulkenberg's salary at a high $20m, so Renault would be keen to replace Hulkenberg with Vandoorne whose stocks will be very high having beaten Alonso in the 2018 season... 

Edited by V8 Fireworks, 02 November 2017 - 14:08.

[SenorSjon]

Where's Bottas gone??
If Merc dropped him I think he would easily find a top midfield seat or at least be back at Williams and that's only if Ferrari didn't take him to replace Raikkonen

 

Ther e is a bit of a crossroads between talent and pay-drivers. If his slump continues, why would anyone take him? Of course he could be back at Williams as a Perez-like move.

 

I think Alonso is on a 2-year-contract.
 

 

I think he has 1+1 contract to wiggle his toe to get any top seat coming up.

[sopa]

Ther e is a bit of a crossroads between talent and pay-drivers. If his slump continues, why would anyone take him? Of course he could be back at Williams as a Perez-like move.

 

Williams has real trouble a finding a good driver for next year. Chances are the situation wouldn't be much better one year on. I'm sure Williams would take Bottas back in a heartbeat. If Massa could continue his F1 career after 4 bad seasons in Ferrari, sure Bottas can stay in F1 too.

 

Plus there is Haas, who seems like they also are able to hire experienced drivers and are not relying on paydrivers.

[flingsofdeon]

I could see Daniel heading to McLaren at some stage. Him and Zak have played with Zak's car collection in Paul Ricard, and he fits McLaren's new image well...

[Maxioos]

Red Bull - Verstappen and Hartley  (Hartley will impress at STR) 

Mercedes- Hamilton and Bottas (2020 Ocon so that leaves DR out)

Ferrari - Vettel and Leclerc (DR is too much "image" risk for Vettel might he lose again and Leclerc will have a Verstappen impressive like debut.)

McLaren - Vandoorne and Norris

Renault - Alonso and Ricciardo (Renault will be 3th in WCC in 2018 after RBR¹ and Merc², before Ferrari⁴ and Mclaren⁵)

Force India - Perez and Ocon

Williams - Kubica and Stroll 

Haas - Magnussen and Sainz

Sauber - Giovinazzi and Ericsson

Toro Rosso - Gasly and Verschoor 

 

 

Out: Raikkonen, Hulkenberg, Grosjean

 

Rookies: Verschoor, Giovinazzi and Norris.

 

Estimate% correct: 92,654% (or was that % wrong?       ) 

Edited by Maxioos, 02 November 2017 - 15:07.

[Louis Mr. F1]

Early predictions

 

Red Bull Honda

1.Max Verstappen

55.Carlos Sainz

 

Mercedes

44.Lewis Hamilton

3.Daniel Ricciardo

 

Ferrari

5.Sebastian Vettel

7.Kimi Raikkonen

 

McLaren Renault

14.Fernando Alonso

2.Stoffel Vandoorne

 

Renault

27.Nico Hulkenberg

77.Valtteri Bottas

 

Force India Mercedes

31.Esteban Ocon

11.Sergio Perez

 

Williams Mercedes

18.Lance Stroll

X.Robert Kubica

 

Haas Ferrari

X.Charles Leclerc

20.Kevin Magnussen

 

Sauber Ferrari

X.Lando Norris

9.Marcus Ericsson

 

Toro Rosso Honda

10.Pierre Gasly

X.Nirei Fukuzumi

 

Kimi still there in 2019?   I nearly fainted 

Edited by Louis Mr. F1, 02 November 2017 - 15:27.

[SonJR]

Fun, I'll play.

 

Mercedes - Hamilton, Ocon

Ferrari - Vettel, Ricciardo

Red Bull - Verstappen, Sainz

Renault - Hulkenberg, Bottas

Force India - Perez, Kvyat

Williams - Stroll, Grosjean

McLaren - Alonso, Vandoorne

Haas - Magnussen, Leclerc

Sauber - Giovinazzi, Ericsson/whomever

Toro Rosso - Gasly, Hartley/Fukuzumi

 

I'd alternately switch Perez and Bottas around, and Sainz and Ricciardo. Tough calls

I think Leclerc will be at Sauber in 2018 and move to Haas in '19.

[NotSoSilentBob]

If Ricciardo re-signs at Red Bull, he's nuts. Verstappen in the same car will own him, as he is now. Dan needs a slight car / engine advantage to compete, as Hamilton and Vettel have now.

I hope DR moves to Ferrari. Vettel might be the #1 at the moment, but if DR started to beat him Ferrari would switch over their allegiance pretty quickly.

Edited by NotSoSilentBob, 02 November 2017 - 16:01.

[LuckyStrike1]

Or he'll just beat Max at Red Bull .... 

I don't think it's going to be any easier for him to beat Vettel at Ferrari or Hamilton at Mercedes, and besides a racing driver with ambitions are never afraid and base their decisions on who is their teammate. That's what us fans do. 

I honestly believe Ricciardo believes he can beat anyone he is team mate with. If he does not have that confidence, he needs to find another occupation. 

I think he stays put. 

Mercedes is probably looking closely at Ocon, and Ferrari are grooming Leclerc and they both already have some very good options for the team while grooming within their programmes. 
 

We'll see and know for sure during 2018 but I would put my money on Ricciardo resigning with Red Bull, and may the best Red Bull driver win. 

[Afterburner]

Ricciardo at Ferrari, please. He and Seb were a cool team last time and got along well, and I think they’ll bring out the best in each other if paired again. Although, in this case, it might be a good idea to rename the ‘shoey’...

[george1981]

Red Bull - Verstappen & Gasly/Hartley  - Redbull turning into a team with a #1 driver
Mercedes- Hamilton & Bottas - Mercedes also turning into a team with a #1 driver
Ferrari - Vettel & Ricciardo - Ferrari going for two more equal drivers to win the WCC if nothing else 
McLaren - Alonso & Vandoorne - no better options
Renault - Sainz & Hulkenberg - Sainz is here for the long haul together with Hulkenberg
Force India - Perez & Occon - no better options - Mercedes will keep Occon racing somewhere until they can sell his contract to Renault
Williams - Stroll & Di Resta - Stroll definitely, Di Resta assuming he's driving for them in 2018
Haas - Grosjean & Leclerc - they might try a token US driver instead, I think K-Mag's days are numbered unfortunately
Sauber - Ericsson & Giovinazzi - One Ferrari driver and one team owner choice
Toro Rosso - Hartley/Gasly & someone else from their driver programme

[sladealonso]

Haha, you expect Max to be WDC in 2018 and take no. 1!

I think his new Red Bull contract is gonna go a long wayto securing it however looking into my crystal ball 2019 + 2020 may be less rosy  

 

Don't think Fukuzumi will have enough points for a superlicence.
 

 

I'm not sure if he will depends on next season I guess if not maybe matsushita or just retaining Hartley

Kimi still there in 2019?   I nearly fainted 

 I think most would react on the same lines I'm thinking Ferrari just hold him till 2020 and then throw in Leclerc I don't think they have it in them to do it sooner

[efuloni]

Mercedes: Hamilton / Ocon 

Ferrari: Vettel / Riccardo

Red Bull: Verstappen / Sainz 

Force India: Perez / New guy

Renault: Hulkenberg / Alonso (his last try to win something)

McLaren: Norris / Vandoorne

Williams: Stroll / Grosjean

Haas: LeClerc / American new guy

Toro Rosso Honda: Hartley / Gasly

Sauber Ferrari: new guy / new guy

[Augurk]

Surprised by the amount of people who think Sainz will end up at Red Bull. I think he will either stick around at Renault and Red Bull let their option on him go, or he will fall back on the grid or disappear. Don't see him at Red Bull. 

 

Might be wrong though. 

[Ivanhoe]

Agree, can't see them team him up with Max again, way too toxic.

[ArrowsLivery]

Hmm, my guess:

 

Ferrari: Hamilton (driver's champ), Vettel

Mercedes: Ricciardo, Ocon

Red Bull-Honda: Verstappen, Gasly

Renault: Sainz, Vandoorne (poached by Renault)

McLaren-Renault: Alonso, Norris (rookie)

Force India-Mercedes: Perez, Wehrlein

Williams-Mercedes: Stroll, Bottas (returns to Williams)

Toro Rosso-Honda: Hartley, TBA (Rossi?)

HAAS-Ferrari: Magnussen, Hulkenberg

Sauber-Ferrari: Leclerc, Ericsson

 

Retired: Raikkonen, Grosjean

 

Rumours placed Hulkenberg's salary at a high $20m, so Renault would be keen to replace Hulkenberg with Vandoorne whose stocks will be very high having beaten Alonso in the 2018 season... 

 

There is no chance Hulkenberg would ever be replaced by Vandoorne of all people. Nico is a better performer by far. 

 

I could see Daniel heading to McLaren at some stage. Him and Zak have played with Zak's car collection in Paul Ricard, and he fits McLaren's new image well...

 

Why would Daniel agree to such a downgrade?

[sopa]

Agree, can't see them team him up with Max again, way too toxic.

 

I think "issues" in the Verstappen-Sainz relationship are a bit overblown. Vettel-Webber and Hamilton-Rosberg had also some difficult moments, yet these pairs stayed together for 5 and 4 seasons respectively.

 

You get true troubles in a driver line-up only if 2 drivers are legitimately in the elite class (Senna-Prost, Hamilton-Alonso).

 

As Sainz falls short of this level, I would expect him to drop more into Webber/Rosberg/Barrichello category. Yeah, he may be unhappy, but he grudginly accepts getting beaten, because he knows there is no better place for him to go.

[Ivanhoe]

I think "issues" in the Verstappen-Sainz relationship are a bit overblown. Vettel-Webber and Hamilton-Rosberg had also some difficult moments, yet these pairs stayed together for 5 and 4 seasons respectively.

You get true troubles in a driver line-up only if 2 drivers are legitimately in the elite class (Senna-Prost, Hamilton-Alonso).

As Sainz falls short of this level, I would expect him to drop more into Webber/Rosberg/Barrichello category. Yeah, he may be unhappy, but he grudginly accepts getting beaten, because he knows there is no better place for him to go.

Maybe you're right, like any driver Carlos doesn't like to be beaten by his team mate, but maybe if he has to play second fiddle to Max as a number 2 driver it's easier for him to accept as he then has an excuse. If he would get beaten of course, but that is what I'd expect. Just don't think the chemistry between the two is there for an optimal team performance, but that's more my gut feeling than anything else.

Edited by Ivanhoe, 03 November 2017 - 08:57.

[Laster]

Surprised by the amount of people who think Sainz will end up at Red Bull. I think he will either stick around at Renault and Red Bull let their option on him go, or he will fall back on the grid or disappear. Don't see him at Red Bull.

Might be wrong though.

It’s entirely dependent on what happens with Ricciardo. If he leaves Red Bull at the end of the season, who else but Sainz would they replace him with? They clearly have Sainz positioned at Renault on loan as security in case Ricciardo leaves. I think Horner even said that himself recently, but I can’t quite be bothered to go searching for where I read it.

[Augurk]

It’s entirely dependent on what happens with Ricciardo. If he leaves Red Bull at the end of the season, who else but Sainz would they replace him with? They clearly have Sainz positioned at Renault on loan as security in case Ricciardo leaves. I think Horner even said that himself recently, but I can’t quite be bothered to go searching for where I read it.

It's just a feeling I have. And by then they have tried out 2 fresh drivers for over a year. Who knows what might happen. 

[Maxioos]

It’s entirely dependent on what happens with Ricciardo. If he leaves Red Bull at the end of the season, who else but Sainz would they replace him with? They clearly have Sainz positioned at Renault on loan as security in case Ricciardo leaves. I think Horner even said that himself recently, but I can’t quite be bothered to go searching for where I read it.

 

He did, yesterday in autosport article. But he also stated they have multiple backups, not only Sainz. https://www.autospor...ciardo-decision

 

And, it's hard to take Horner words on value afther all those lies/misleadings. Like earlier this year he 100% ruled out Gasly at STR in 2018 and the "Max, Kvyat, Sainz are on same junior contract" statement.

 

They also posted Sainz on the market earlier this year for $ 8 million. After the Max-Ferrari rumors out of spain with is believed came from Sainz camp. (RBR high person's where not amused, most will remember)

 

The reason of keep Sainz under contract can be multiple. It's possible Renault only wanted to borrow him and not buy because of future line-up plans. (my 2 cent Alonso/Ricciardo). It can be a protection from RBR of their philosophy against young drivers in RBR program that they just can't get out of contract by acting like Sainz has done (if Spain story is correct)

[sladealonso]

Would Sainz have the choice or is he Red Bull (if they want him) confirmed for 2019 because if they are laboured with a Honda PU its very conceivable that Renault would be ahead of Red Bull come 2019

[sladealonso]

Also its fair to say most people have Mercedes and Ferrari opting for youth in Ocon and Leclerc for 2019, itd majorly spice up the season but are they ready for the top yet and more importantly will the the teams see it that way?

[LuckyStrike1]

Mercedes will be looking for an option for Bottas for 2019 and they will have their eyes fixed on Ocons continued development. Ricciardo will flirt with Mercedes as he is suddenly seeing his momentum at Red Bull be stolen by Verstappen but Mercedes will be hesitant as they have options in both Bottas short-term and Ocon long-term. If Ocon continues in 2018 as he has in 2017 Mercedes will have their eyes fixed on him for 2019, while they are extending their contract with Hamilton for a further three years and granting him more freedom outside the car. 

 

Ricciardo will also be flirting with Ferrari and they will be somewhat interested, but just as Mercedes they have their eyes fixed on a young talent coming up the ranks with them. However, unless Leclerc massively impressed at Sauber in 2018 they might feel that it will e too early to bring him in alongside Vettel in 2019. That is a dilemma for Ferrari, but they still have Kimi who will raise his game slightly in 2018 and enough to convince Ferrari he is a valid short-term option for another year while Leclerc gets a chance to develop at Sauber before being brought into Ferrari in 2020. 

 

So that is another door half-open but in the end shut for Ricciardo. McLaren has at this point started to win the odd race and get the odd podium or two but they can't consistenly challenge Mercedes and Ferrari for the title despite Alonsos six tenths and they struggle to fend off a re-bord Red Bull who is now an outside title contender. The fact is also that Alonso can't decided whether to retire from F1 or not for 2019 and drags out on his decision so there is not a slot open at McLaren for Ricciardo who are looking to keep Vandoorne on. 

 

Renault is fighting with Force India and shows glimpses of better pace but they still can't crack into top 4 in the championship and now McLaren is up there as well. Ricciardo does not feel that is a step forward. 

 

So he is left with extending with Red Bull but Red Bull is calm about the whole thing because they already have Verstappen on board and even if they prefer to keep Ricciardo as well, they always have Sainz as an option. Sainz is now leading Renault and has put Hulkenberg in his place, and racks up some podiums while Hulkenberg has fourth, fifth and sixth places. Solid but unspectactular where as Sainz is emerging as a new player in F1. Red Bull therefore can afford to take their time with Ricciardo who suddenly realises he has no real options outside extending with Red Bull and so he does for a 2 + 1 year contract.

 

Sainz is subsequently released from Red Bull to Renault and no longer on loan from Red Bull. 

 

Mercedes and Ferrari are clam, they both have their respective solid but unspectacular Finn to extend with for another year while waiting for their respective young French talent to be ready to step up to the main team, where they both have their star driver safely secured. 

So Ricciardo is left with resigning with Red Bull as he can't wait for Alonso to decide what to do at McLaren and not eager to take a step back to Renault where he would replace Sainz who would take his then vacant seat at Red Bull. 

 

And the pieces slots into place, and Ricciardo will have to prepare himself to take the fight to Verstappen on and off-track and within the team before that becomes Team Verstappen. 

There you go. 

[JacobRPP]

Would Sainz have the choice or is he Red Bull (if they want him) confirmed for 2019 because if they are laboured with a Honda PU its very conceivable that Renault would be ahead of Red Bull come 2019

 

I think if Ricciardo left for Mercedes or Ferrari than Sainz would be moved to Red Bull as per his contract. 

[DutchQuicksilver]

Surprised by the amount of people who think Sainz will end up at Red Bull. I think he will either stick around at Renault and Red Bull let their option on him go, or he will fall back on the grid or disappear. Don't see him at Red Bull.

Might be wrong though.

I think aided by the fact Red Bull only loaned him out to Renault. Why would they do that if they don’t see a future at Red Bull for him?

Sainz and Verstappen got along fine in 2015, it was more people involved around them that didn’t get along.

[Maxioos]

My understanding is that Sainz will be in RBR in 2019 or Renault will have first/exclusive option to buy out his contract if he doesn't get RBR seat.

 

They (Sainz/Renault, don't remember who) stated he won't be back at STR for sure.

 

The (small) chance is there that he won't be in RBR seat (Ricciardo stays or Hartley/Gasly impress at STR) and Renault loses interest in buying out his contract.